Κυριακή, 18 Μαρτίου 2012

Centripetal "habits" the “key” for Mr Venizelos...

Posted in the Greek blogs 17/ March/ 2012 & (in Greek text 16-17/ March/ 2012)   Talking with my friends from all over Greece, from Chania and Heraklion to Kastoria and Alexandroupolis, who almost as a rule have voted PASOK in most elections since 1993 when Professor Venizelos was elected for the first time to Parliament and up to the 2009 national elections, a somewhat strange, but certainly “original script” started to take shape in my mind, concerning the days following Sunday’s internal voting for election of the new chairman for the party of PASOK...Most of my interlocutors believe that Mr Venizelos will play the role of a "magnet" for the return to the Party for the bitterness, anger and frustration riddled voters of PASOK under the leadership of Mr Papandreou. Those sentiments were intensified after May 2010 and the approval of the First Memorandum which brought the Troika to Greece and their depth, breath and intensity has been reflected in ALL polls held and published in recent months!

   The much overlooked reality is that In the 2009 elections, PASOK although it held most of its old voters did not attract many new voters in such numbers as to justify its stunning victory over the New Democracy party lead by then Prime Minister Mr Karamanlis. What obviously made the difference was the abstention from the voting polls of more than one million New-Democracy voters who chose not to vote for their party.
  The reality remains, however, that for the last 38 years (1974-2012) after the fall of the Junta these two major political parties have succeeded each other in Governing Greece and, by objective appraisals, have brought the country and the economy to its current “technical bankrupt” status ...
    A careful scrutiny of the behavior of the Greek electorate during the last 4 decades will bring forth the little discussed, analyzed and appraised reality that in each national election the Greeks do not vote into office either the PASOK Socialists or the New Democracy Conservatives but rather they “vote out of Office” the political party who is currently holding power but “disappointed” them with the implementation of some policies and the neglect of some others.
The magnitude, breath and depth of disappointment, then, becomes the crucial factor for deposing one of the two ruling parties and granting the right to govern to the other one.
   In the prevailing social, political, psychological emotional state which is related to and stems from the recent collapse of the Greek economy, the view that the electorate will turn against the 2 parties that currently rule Greece as a “coalition Government” is strongly reflected in the polls which, for the first time in the last 38 years, predict the collapse of the “two party system” and the familiar one party Government as well as the probable coexistence of up to 7 or 8 parties in the composition of the 300-member Greek Parliament!.
    What the polls reflect is the emergence of 2 embankments to the left of PASOK and 2 more to the right of New Democracy, but what the polls have not examined is the agonizing feeling of the Greek electorate for breaking off from habitual loyalty to perpetually voting in large numbers either the Socialists or the Conservatives whenever the next national election polls will be set up.. 
    .Admittedly, professor Venizelos has 'won' positive impressions with the economic developments in the Eurogroup, the conclusion  of the famed PSI which lead ISDA to declare a Greek “credit event” and the approval of the second bail out plan with the Second Memorandum which in their aggregate effect prescribed the postponement "of the day Greece will inevitably live its economic Armageddon ..."
    Professor Venizelos managed to be the one and ONLY candidate in Sunday’s (March 18, 2012) intra party elections for party Chairman and, for the first time in modern history of Greek politics after the late Constantine Karamanlis and his New Democracy party, the Socialist party which currently Governs Greece will have a Chairman originating in the North-Greek geographical area!..
   Asking for your
understanding I feel obliged to remind you of that  “inelegant” but so successfully descriptive proverbial Greek expression describing definitely the character of Greeks and perhaps of all human beings in regards to “habits and habituation” which states “first we loose our soul and subsewquently we let go of our habits”.
    I will wait to see the numbers of participants in PASOK elections for the single candidate for the office of President, the numbers of participants of Northern Greek regions, Macedonia, Thrace, Epirus and Thessaly, and then
I will return to my strange but "original script" and start forecasting the new Chairman’s ability in crating potential centripetal forces in the Green Camp of PASOK ...
   In the forthcoming national elections, I honestly believe that despite what the current polls show, it will be Mr Samaras and his "New" New Democracy party that will be confronted with more serious challenges from his 2 right embankments than Mr Venizelos and his PASOK from his left embankments. In order to avoid potential "misunderstandings" concerning my personal preferences in closing I publicly declare that I will not vote for Mr Venizelos, or  for PASOK  or "New" Democracy!